[정품]금융전문가 1.5

6 Steps to the Perfect Pitch
Learn to succeed with investors--from a guy who failed.

By Scott Gerber

Shortly after my college graduation, a few friends and I started a new media company. Within a few weeks we fleshed out the concept, wrote a business plan and set out to seek financing. With a little hustle, I managed to get us a meeting with a well-known investment firm to discuss the opportunity. Even though our business had yet to bring in a single dollar, and none of us had ever been the CEO of coffee shop let alone a multi-million dollar enterprise, we were all confident that we had a sure thing on our hands. After all, our financial projections forecasted gross revenues of $200 million. What investor could say no to that?

We'd be rich. All we needed to do was raise a small amount of capital--$15 million.

I remember thinking, “How hard could it be?” We were obviously, naïve, foolish and delusional.

There was one small problem with our plan. None of us had any idea how to pitch an investor. So I did what any clueless entrepreneurial upstart would do: Google searched “how to pitch an investor”.

Nothing that I read online could have prepared me for what was to come. We would quickly find out that our presentation was doomed before we ever set foot into the meeting. In reality, it was doomed before we started writing the business plan.

At the beginning of the meeting one of the investors asked me to hand him a one-page executive summary review. I hadn’t prepared a summary, so I handed him the first 11 pages out of the binder encasing my 95-page business plan. Strike one.

Less than four slides into my 32-slide presentation, the second investor interrupted me and said, “OK. Stop. I get it. You definitely don’t need $15 million.”

Defending our business plan, I overconfidently replied: “It can’t be done for less.”

“Really? It can’t be done, huh?” he responded with a smirk masking a hint of laughter. Strike two.

Both of the investors then proceeded to hit us with a barrage of questions:

“How much money have you personally put into your business? Anywhere near $15 million?"

“Why should I pay a bunch of twenty-somethings with no track record $100,000 executive salaries?”

“How much revenue has the business produced to date?”

“Why should I give you $15 million when the company hasn’t even made $15?"

“How can you possibly substantiate gross revenues of $200 million in year three?”

“Why are you trying to produce, market and distribute 10 products at the same time before you see if a single one sells at all?”

The questions went on and on. None of our answers were favorable. Strike three.

As you might have guessed, I didn't walk out of that meeting with a $15 million check. I later realized, however, that this was one of the greatest educational experiences of my young career. I learned more about real-world fundraising in 30 minutes than many entrepreneurs learn in a lifetime. To this day, whenever I pitch investors for capital, I always remember these six hard-learned lessons:

Less is always more.

An elevator pitch is vital. Verbose presentations and lengthy explanations will not impress investors, and most likely will turn them off. Present your business in a manner that's short, sweet and to the point. Investors need to be confident that your business will attract and retain customers. If they don’t grasp your concept in a short time span, they may presume that customers won’t understand it either.

* 짧은 시간에 당신이 하고자 하는 말(컨셉)을 상사 또는 투자가가 알아듣지 못한다면, 고객은 당연히 이해하지 못할 겁니다. 바로 옆사람을 혹하게 할 수 있는 정도의 논리나 컨셉이 중요합니다.

Never hypothesize. Execute, execute, execute.

Inspire confidence with facts, not fiction. Most investors seek out low-risk businesses with proven managers that are as close to guarantees as possible. A company with cash flow, a track record and real-world experience has a better chance of getting investors than a business plan forecasting large returns. Find ways to test your business’s viability on a shoestring budget, and turn your idea into a functional business before you seek investment.

* 현금흐름도 좋고, 실적도 있고, 게다가 실제 경험까지 있는 사업가라면 그 어느 사업계획서보다 더 믿음이 가겠지요?

Leave the hockey sticks on the ice.

Excite investors about your big picture, but be reasonable and responsible. Avoid hockey stick projections. Respectable investors will not take you seriously if you present them with nonsensical financial graphs that claim your company’s revenues will grow from $100,000 to $50 million in three years. Show investors that you have a grasp on reality with three versions of financial projections: best case, moderate case and worst case. Base each of these models on facts, past and present performance data, industry and competitor analyses and a series of well-thought-out, defendable assumptions.

* hockey stick이란 하키스틱의 모양 ( √ ) 처럼 짧은 기간에 급성장하는 매출을 의미합니다

Learn to love discount stores.

Being cheap is chic. In an age where spending is out of control, you’ll need to prove that you are a fiscally responsible manager who knows how to get the most out of a buck. Give yourself wiggle room in your operations and marketing budgets, but avoid being excessive. Never ask for a large salary or big-budget perks. Investors want you to be in a position where everything is on the line.

Rome wasn’t built in a day. Your business won’t be either.

Investors are wary of funding over-eager businesses that seem destined to bite off more than they can chew. Before asking for millions of dollars to fund 50 divisions and hundreds of product lines, prove how well you can create, manage and fulfill demand for a single product. Demonstrate that your business can crawl before you say it can walk. Perfect your marketing tactics, sales strategies and operational procedures.

Investors appreciate companies with sustainable step-and-repeat business models that are poised for exponential growth. Remember, even Google’s success is based on a single product.

* '당신의 사업이 걷는다고 이야기하기 전에 먼저 기어갈 수 있음을 증명하라'는 말, 정말 정신을 버쩍 들게 하는 멋진 비유입니다.

Choose not to be the smartest person in the room.

Know what you know, know what you don’t know and find the people who know what you don’t know. Build a team of credible experts. The smartest leaders in the world are those who surround themselves with smarter people. Investors are funding a management team as much as they are investing in a great business concept.

* 꼭 창업에만 들어맞는 교훈은 아니겠지요? 내가 무엇을 알고 무엇을 모르는 지 아는 것도 정말 힘든 일입니다. 내가 모르는 것을 아는 사람을 찾는 노력이 사업을 하는 사람에게는 정말 필요한 일이지요.

Scott D. Gerber is Entrepreneur.com's Young Entrepreneur columnist and CEO of Gerber Entertainment, a brand development and venture management company that specializes in the entertainment, Internet, media and marketing industries. For information on speaking engagements, media appearances or Gerber Entertainment's portfolio of businesses visit www.GerberEntertainment.com. Follow Scott Gerber on Twitter @yngentrepreneur.

* 출처: www.entrepreneur.com

Tomorrow will be my last day at Merrill Lynch. I want to sincerely thank my colleagues and clients for the opportunity to work with them. It is because of them that my 20 years at the firm have been so rewarding. As a last report, here are what I view as 10 of the most important investment guidelines I’ve learned in my time at the firm:

1. Income is as important as are capital gains. Because most investors ignore income opportunities, income may be more important than are capital gains.

 -그렇기 때문에 직업을 가져야 되고, 현금 흐름을 창출해 벌어들여야 된다.

2. Most stock market indicators have never actually been tested. Most don’t work.

 -시장 지표를 맹신하지 말라

3. Most investors’ time horizons are much too short. Statistics indicate that day trading is largely based on luck.

 -단타를 하는 사람이 많기 때문에, 통계적 지표를 활용해도 대부분은 운에 맡겨 진다.

4. Bull markets are made of risk aversion and undervalued assets. They are not made of cheering and a rush to buy.

 -활황은 오히려 위험 회피성향과 저 평가된 자선으로 만들어 진다. 단순히 사러 가려는 시장참여자들의 열성으로 구성되어 있지 않다.

5. Diversification doesn’t depend on the number of asset classes in a portfolio. Rather, it depends on the correlations between the asset classes in a portfolio.

 -분산투자는 포트폴리오의 자산의 숫자에 영향을 받기 보다, 그 자산사이의 상관관계에 있다. 그러나 그 상관관계가 이성적으로 설명가능한 포트폴리오를 구성할 필요가 있다.

6. Balance sheets are generally more important than are income or cash flow statements..

 - 재무상태표는 손익계산서나 현금흐름표보다 중요하다. 이 것은 그 기업의 역사를 보여준다.

7. Investors should focus strongly on GAAP accounting, and should pay little attention to “pro forma” or “unaudited” financial statements.

- 투자자는 일반회계원칙에 집중해야되고, 추정이나 검증되지 않은 재무제표를 적게 생각할 필요가 있다.

8. Investors should be providers of scarce capital. Return on capital is typically highest where capital is scarce.

 -투자자는 부족한 자본에 대한 제공자가 되어야 된다. ROC는 대게 가장 높은 곳으로 투자된다.

9. Investors should research financial history as much as possible.

-투자자는 재무과거를 가능한한 연구해야된다.

10. Leverage gives the illusion of wealth. Saving is wealth.

-레버리지는 부의 허상을 나타내고, 저축은 진정한 부다.

Session 18, Leading #76 Altanative Investments 요약정리 4(완료)

Altanative Investments 정리이후 당분간은 Market data & news 만 올리게 될듯..

Hedge Fund

Hedge Fund의 개념 및 특징
- Hedge funds are typically strucutured as limited partnerships, are exempt from

  SEC regulation, have an absolute return objective, and charge a performance-

  based management fee.
  Hedge fund 라고 해서 반드시 위험을 hedge 하는 전략만으로 운용되는 것이 아

  니고 다양한 전략을 병행함으로써 시장상황에 관계없이 절대수익을 추구.
  Equity investment에 비해 상대적으로 risk가 낮고 Sharpe ratio는 높을 뿐만 아니

  라 기존의 투자대상자산과의 correlation이 낮기 때문에 diversification 목적으로

  선호.

Fee charged
- base fee : 운용성과에 관계없이 자산총액의 1% 안팎으로 기본보수를 지불
- incentive fee : 사전에 정해진 수준이상의 운용성과를 달성하면 초과수익 (통상

                      20%)을 지불

Classification of Hedge Funds

(1) Long/Short funds : 저평가된 자산을 매입함과 동시에 고평가된 자산을 매도

                               함으로써 long position을 취한 자산의 수익률이 short

                               position의 자산 수익률보다 크면 시장상황에 관계없이 이

                               익을 남기게 된다. (not market neutral)

(2) Market neutral funds : 현물포트폴리오에 long position을 취하고, 동시에 선물

                                  포트폴리오에 short position을 취함으로써 시장의 방향

                                  성과 무관하게 이익을 내는 전략으로 long position과 

                                  short position 포트폴리오의 베타를 0으로 만드는 조합

                                  을 이용한다-> 전통적인 hedge fund 전략

(3) Global macro funds : 특정국가의 금리, 통화 등 거시경제적 변수나 정치적 변

                                  수의 분석을 통해 주식, 채권, 통화 등의 long/short

                                 position 중 어느 한쪽 방향만을 선택하여 이익을 극대화.
                                 High leveraged, rely heavily upon derivatives.

(4) Event driven funds : 시장전체에 일어나는 사건보다는 특정기업에 발생하는

                                  M&A, 부도, 구조조정, 신주발행 등의 사건을 활용하여

                                 수익을 추구한다.

Fund of Funds investing

(1) Benefits
- Funds of funds enable investors with limited caital to invest in a portfolio of

   hedge funds.
- Diversification

(2) Drawbacks
- charged a management fee in addition to those fees already charged by the

   hedge fund manager
- diversification으로 인해 위험이 낮아지는 대신 수익률이 낮아지는것도 감수해야

   함.

Risk of Hedge funds
-illiquidity
-Potential for mispricing
-Counterparty credit risk
-Settlement errors
-Short covering
- Margin calls

Hedge Funds의 성과분석

(1) Hedge Funds Indicies
   : Hedge Funds의 운용성과를 측정하기 위해 만들어진 지수들이 많이 있지만 개

     별 Hedge Fund의 운용전략 및 구조가 독특한 경우가 많아 자산클래스로서

     Hedge Fund에 대한 정보를 충분히 제공하지 못한다.
     또한 Hedge Fund는 운용성과를 공시하도록 규제를 하고 있지 않기 때문에 자

     발적으로 운용성과를 공시하는 Hedge Fund만이 지수산정에 편입된다.

(2) Biases
As with the evaluation of historical data for any investment instrument, certain biases may exist that should be considerd.

- Cherry picking : 운용성과가 좋았던 펀드들의 실적만 공시하여 실제 성과보다

                        overestimate
- Incomelete historical data : poor past performance is excluded.
- Survival of the fittest : By design, an index only includes ongoing funds and

                                 excludes those that have failed. The index in effect is

                                 biased toward only the success stories of the industry.
- Smoothed pricing : hedge fund manager들이 short position in call option에서 수

                            익을 내는데 이때 option의 비대칭적인 손익구조(limited

                             upside potential but unlimited downside potential)가 Hedge

                            Fund의 성과에 반영되지 않는다.
- Fee structures and incentives : manager들이 받는 기본보수는 small fixed fee인

                                           반면, 성과보수는 운용성과의 크기에 의해 결정

                                         되므로과도한 risk를 부담하려는 경향을 띠게 된다.

- Survivorship bias : 수익의 변동성이 큰 Hedge Fund가 실패하는 빈도가 높기 때

                           문에 database에서 제외 시키므로 database에는 more stable

                           funds들만 남게되어 수익을 understate하게 된다
                      (반면 cherry-picking은 fund의 운용성과를 overestate하는 경향이

                        있다)

Private Companies

Legal issues
- closely held companies의 주식은 유통시장에서 거래되지 않고 회계보고 및 공

  시에 관한 SEC의 규제도 받지 않는다.
  Corporation, partnerships, sole proprietorships 등 여러가지 형태로 설립될 수 있

  고 조세상의 이유로 legal structure가 결정되기도 한다.

Valuation
(1) Cost approach
(2) Comparables approach
(3) Income approach

closely held company를 valuation 할 때 lack of liquidity, lack of marketabillty and discount for minority interest 등의 factor들을 고려해야 한다.

Investing in Commodities

-Investing in commodities gives an investors exposure to an economy's

  production and consumption growth.
 주로 공산품의 원자재나 식량으로 사용되며, 공급이 제한적인 상황에서 높은 경

 제성장을 이룬 국가들에서그 가격이 큰 폭으로 상승하여 매우 높은 수익률을 거

 둘 수 있다. Commodity prices는 최종재 가격보다 변동성이 크다.

(1) Commodity-linked equity investments
 - 원자재 생산기업의 주식에 투자하여 commodity price changes에 노출된 것과

    같은 효과.
   This may be especially true for the shares of smaller, less diversified commodity

    producing firms.

(2) Commodity-linked bonds
- 원자재 생산기업의 채권에 투자하여 commodity price changes에 노출된 것과

   같은 효과.

* Pure commodities가 가격 상승시에만 수익을 실현하는 데 반해 Commodity-

   linked securities는 원자재 생산기업의주식, 채권에 투자하는 것이므로 current

   income이 있다. 
  There is no evidence that the commodity-linked securities market is more liquid,

   provides less counterparty risk, or allows  higher speculative profits than

   commodities.

(3) Collateralized commodities futures position
- Speculation이 아닌 hedge를 목적으로 특정 원자재 선물계약을 매입하는 동시

   에 같은 크기의 국채를 매입하여 선물가격의 변화로 인한 손실을 국채 이자로

   cover하는 전략.
=> Total return = gain / loss on the futures + interest earned on the T-

                     bonds

*Motivation
- 전통적인 펀드투자와 상관관계가 낮아 분산효과가 크고 물가 상승시 가격급등

  으로 수익률이 높아지기 때문에 장기적으로 인플레이션에 대해 hedge할 수 있

  다.

출처 : http://blog.naver.com/acme